In this spirits industry forecast at Bar Convent Brooklyn, speakers provided data-driven insights into the forces reshaping the global alcohol market and delivered, from emerging growth opportunities and industry consolidation to the cocktail trends driving consumer behavior. These presentations offer essential strategic guidance for brands, distributors, and hospitality professionals looking to capitalize on market shifts and position themselves for success in an increasingly competitive environment.
U.S. Alcohol Industry 2025: Trends in Distribution and M&A
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn, Senior Manager of Marketing & Content at Park Street, reveals the shifts transforming the U.S. alcohol industry. From distribution wars to mergers and acquisitions, and what every alcohol industry professional needs to know.
Cocktail Trends: How Bar Menus are Changing
Ed Dobbles, Chief Analytics Officer at Overproof, reveals what cocktail trends are driving bar menus to change across the country and in NYC – based on 485,000 real menu listings from independent bars and restaurants.
Global Alcohol Market Outlook: Key Opportunities & Growth Drivers Transcript
Adam Rogers (0:03)
“My name is Adam Rogers. As you said, I’m with the IWSR. We are the global leader in data analytics and insights for the beverage alcohol industry. Today, I’m going to walk you through some global beverage alcohol trends, highlight some growth segments, and discuss what’s trending in consumption shifts around the world. The majority of the data in this presentation is volume and value tracking from our global database, which was recently released alongside some of our BevTrack consumer data as well. Looking at some macro trends, globally speaking, volumes declined by 1% last year, but value rose by 1%. Looking forward, the market is expected to grow by $16 billion in 5 years and $34 billion in 10 years. Some key dynamics driving this are tariff uncertainties that could affect cross-border alcohol trade, under-pressure consumer spending around the world, resilient premiumization in spirits and beer, and rising moderation—especially with no-alcohol options. So even in a tough environment, value is still growing. Premiumization and health trends like moderation continue to reshape the market.”
Adam Rogers (1:02)
“From a category and markets perspective, RTDs (Ready-to-Drink) are still growing, but at a slower pace. As the volume base gets larger, the overall growth rates naturally become lower. Developing markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are key for future growth. Early evening and daytime drinks are shifting category dynamics, and the US market will most likely shift toward domestic production if proposed tariffs actually come to occur. This growth is being driven both by changing consumer habits, like earlier and more casual cadence occasions, and expansion into emerging markets. Looking at the top growth categories, momentum is primarily coming from no-alcohol options, RTDs, agave-based spirits, and aperitifs.”
Adam Rogers (1:45)
“The core consumer drivers right now are moderation, convenience, new drinking occasions, and alternative package sizes. Whiskey growth is mainly due to the Indian and Irish segments, which are expanding from a lower volume base accordingly. We’re seeing a clear rise in convenience formats and lighter choices, with no-alcohol leading absolute volume growth. Looking toward a full recovery, not all categories will return to their 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Whiskey is being heavily lifted by India, whereas cognac lags due to challenges in the US and China, and lager’s decline is slowing down thanks to developing markets. Category performance remains uneven; some segments like whiskey are rebounding well, while others like lager are simply stabilizing.”
Adam Rogers (2:26)
“Looking at developed versus developing markets tells a completely different story. Developed markets show limited growth, but developing markets are driving absolute volume expansion, especially within spirits and RTDs. Growth is decisively shifting east and south. India, Brazil, and Mexico are becoming the real volume drivers for the industry in the near future. For some quick country highlights: India is number one in absolute growth, led by whiskey; Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are all showing strong RTD and beer growth; the US and China are seeing widespread category declines; and France and Turkey are being affected by localized economic and political challenges. The global map shows how performance is highly localized, with India, Brazil, and Mexico standing out as the zones with the most opportunity.”
Adam Rogers (3:13)
“Mapping out the exact growth spots, the key zones include Indian spirits, premium-plus beer, aperitifs, Prosecco, RTDs, no-alcohol, and functional drinks. The future winners span both luxury and wellness, with premium spirits and no-alcohol options growing right side by side. Consumption is also shifting much earlier in the day. There has been a distinct transition from late-night settings to daytime and early evening consumption occasions. The aperitivo movement and moderation trends are playing a key role here, further reinforced by safety concerns and shifting hybrid work schedules. People are going out earlier, drinking less total volume, and choosing lighter or lower-ABV options. This significantly alters what, where, and when we need to sell to people.”
Adam Rogers (3:56)
“Looking at the on-trade snapshot by value, consumer spending in bars and restaurants varies heavily by market. In China, spirits are consumed mostly in restaurants during meals, unlike Europe where a lot of consumption happens traditionally in bars. Understanding these venue-specific habits is key, especially in emerging markets where restaurants heavily dominate alcohol sales. Looking into the on-trade recovery using our BevTrack consumer data, on-premise recovery softened earlier in 2025, and there is no clear return to pre-COVID momentum in most markets. While the on-trade is stabilizing, we are not seeing a full rebound yet; it remains below pre-pandemic levels in many places.”
Adam Rogers (4:42)
“On a positive note, Gen Z’s market participation is actively increasing. According to our tracking data, Gen Z’s alcohol category participation rose significantly in 2025 across most global markets. Their habits differ from older generations; they have a lower absolute commitment to strict moderation and carry a much broader total drinks repertoire. Gen Z is re-entering the category but with completely different expectations, deeply valuing variety and social experiences. This group heavily over-indexes on on-trade usage, showing the highest levels of bar and restaurant activity in France, Japan, the UK, Germany, and Australia. They are the most active cohort in the trade right now, making them critical for building brand visibility and testing new product innovations.
To leave you with some key global takeaways: absolute growth is global and driven by India and developing markets; Gen Z drinks but does so differently, favoring the on-trade and wider brand repertoires; and moderation is not an industry threat—it is a commercial pivot toward premium, light, and earlier consumption occasions. Travel retail and the traditional on-trade remain vital channels for brand discovery and value. That is it for my slides. Again, my name is Adam Rogers, I’m with the IWSR, and I’ll be around all day. Please come say hi. Thank you.”
U.S. Alcohol Industry 2025: Trends in Distribution and M&A Transcript
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (0:03)
“For my part today, I’m going to be covering some of the core aspects of the US market and touching on recent Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity. As we all know, we’re coming off of a couple of tough years for our industry. But like every market, there is a natural ebb and flow. Spirits consumption declined by 2% in volume in 2024, according to the IWSR, which led to total spirits sales in the US dipping by 1.1%. Several macroeconomic factors are causing this dip: a growing consumer interest in sobriety and moderation, incoming warning labels on alcohol, tariffs, inflation, and imbalanced inventory levels across the supply chain. Furthermore, we are seeing weakening performance in the premium-plus tiers of historically dominant categories like tequila and whiskey. Overall, these economic pressures have prompted consumers—specifically younger legal-drinking-age (LDA) individuals—to moderate their total consumption or down-trade to lower-priced choices. This increase in moderation is primarily being led by health-conscious millennials who are far more selective in their lifestyle choices than previous generations.”
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (1:05)
“Distillers, importers, and on-premise bar and restaurant owners are all actively dealing with this complex set of circumstances. However, I want to pivot and focus on the distinct positives we are seeing today. According to the IWSR, trade sentiment is finally starting to improve. The broader economy and underlying consumer feelings are actively fighting off the headwinds of moderation and caution. American millennials are showing an increased willingness to go out to bars and restaurants as their financial circumstances improve, and certain categories like Scotch, premium liqueurs, and sparkling wine are directly benefiting from this shift. A long-awaited normalization in wholesale inventory levels is also finally on the horizon. Additionally, the latest on-premise data from CGA by NielsenIQ shows that the Ready-to-Drink (RTD) category has been the fastest-growing segment in the entire on-premise sector. This rapid RTD growth is heavily driven by the consumer desire for convenience, especially within high-volume channels like nightclubs and bars. Looking ahead, volume consumption gains are expected to continue through 2029 for dynamic sub-categories such as agave-based spirits, Indian whiskey, soju, and coffee liqueurs.”
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (2:11)
“We are also witnessing major structural shifts in commercial distribution. Wholesalers still have too much inventory on hand, and retail shelf space remains incredibly tight, which increases the pressure on smaller craft brands to either deeply differentiate themselves or seek strategic partnerships. As distributor consolidation continues, the nation’s largest players are making massive consolidation moves. For example, Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits recently acquired Horizon Beverage Group, and Johnson Brothers acquired the Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Texas operations of Maverick Beverage Co. Concurrently, major suppliers are moving away from traditional wine and spirits wholesalers in favor of beer distributors to achieve better market penetration. This trend originally started back in 2022 when Sazerac moved its entire portfolio away from Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC) to a network of beer distributors following a high-profile legal dispute. Since then, industry giants like Tito’s and Brown-Forman have also shifted significant distribution blocks away from traditional spirit networks, a realignment trend that we’ve seen continue aggressively among suppliers over the last few weeks.”
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (3:15)
“Now let’s dive into recent M&A activity, because tracking consolidation can tell us exactly where the market is heading based on where institutional players are investing their resources. This data comes directly from our very own Park Street University Alcohol Industry M&A Overview, which we publish on an annual basis. After a historic boom in deal volume between 2020 and 2022, M&A activity has slowed significantly, and the underlying deal dynamics have shifted. Global suppliers have noticeably de-emphasized new investment activity, highlighted by Diageo shutting down its Distill Ventures spirits accelerator, and Campari announcing a formal pause on new M&A activity to focus on organic brand growth and debt reduction within our current tariff climate. By our team’s count, spirits remained the most active category for deal flow with 30 completed transactions, while beer saw 13 deals and wine recorded 12. Strategic buyers focused their capital precisely alongside emerging consumer trends, targeting high-growth sub-categories like agave spirits, non-alcoholic beverages, and craft beer. RTD cocktails saw the highest density of transaction activity, led by Sazerac’s landmark acquisition of BuzzBallz. The most dominant buyers in the market right now remain strategic multinationals like Diageo, E. & J. Gallo, and Sazerac, alongside focused independent buyers and private equity firms.”
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (4:56)
“To streamline their operations, major global brands have actively sought to divest non-core assets to optimize their portfolios, which in turn has created excellent acquisition and capital opportunities for small-to-midsize brands. Industry leaders like Diageo, Molson Coors, and Gallo have systematically sold off non-core brands, opening up doors for smaller companies and independent entrepreneurs. Pernod Ricard led this corporate divestment trend with three major strategic sales. Similarly, Constellation Brands sold Svedka Vodka to Sazerac, and Molson Coors executed a major portfolio refinement by divesting four of its craft beer brands to Tilray, while simultaneously redirecting its capital into tequila partnerships and a non-alcoholic energy drink brand. At the same time, transaction velocity among small and midsize brands is accelerating. Tanteo Tequila was acquired by Ole Smoky Distillery, and Uncle Nearest successfully entered the vodka category through its strategic acquisition of Square One Organic Spirits. More recently, MGP Ingredients acquired Old Elk Distillery, and High Basin Brands purchased the premium ready-to-drink brand, Cantini.”
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (6:04)
“Lastly, there is a highly targeted institutional focus on acquiring premium, luxury-tier assets. Diageo has officially established the Diageo Luxury Group, a new global division designed to unite its high-end, luxury spirit assets into one hyper-focused commercial portfolio. Similarly, Constellation Brands purchased Sea Smoke, a highly specialized, ultra-premium estate producer of Pinot Noir and Chardonnay in California. That about wraps up my overview of the current US market. Thank you all very much for your time.”
Cocktail Trends: How Bar Menus are Changing Transcript
Ed Dobbles (0:03)
“Before I came to Overproof, I worked for Diageo for five years, so I know the industry pretty well. Today, I’m going to talk to you about what is currently happening in the on-premise business. Overproof is a company that specializes in menu data analytics. We primarily focus on two things: first, we acquire, scrape, and aggregate all the data from hospitality menus available across the US and several other countries. Instead of thinking about what you are going to have to drink or eat for dinner, think of a menu as a database—and we maintain a rolling two-and-a-half-year history of that information. Second, we feed that dataset into a specialized software tool designed to help small, entrepreneurial spirit brands grow. Even in this economically challenging market, we give you the tools to ensure you are staying on-trend and executing the right strategies to expand your footprint.”
Ed Dobbles (0:54)
“What I am going to share today is a year-over-year look at how the on-premise business is shifting. As you all know, the on-premise sector is precisely where brands are built and where real consumer discovery happens. Eventually, people become old and boring like me and just drink at home, but new legal-drinking-age consumers enter the category through bars and restaurants. Today, I will focus specifically on national data versus New York City data, looking strictly at independent restaurants rather than large chains. If you want to know what is moving at Chili’s, we can pull that data for you, too. This specific analysis compares April of this year against April of last year to establish a reliable year-over-year baseline. I have completely cleaned the data of any localized seasonal noise or mid-season menu rotations, so you don’t have to worry about those anomalies distorting the trend lines.”
Ed Dobbles (1:41)
“It is vital to understand why tracking these menus matters so much. Nationally, our data shows that the average independent bar or restaurant updates its menu twice a year, meaning once every six months. In New York City, that velocity is slightly faster, with rotations occurring roughly every four months. The critical takeaway for brand owners is that you have to time these windows perfectly to catch a trend line. If you miss a venue’s specific menu-planning window, you are locked out of that placement for a full six months nationally, or four months here in New York City. Looking at the data, we are seeing some fascinating cocktail format shifts that honestly surprised me.”
Ed Dobbles (2:12)
“The Margarita remains by far the most popular cocktail in America; it is a footprint that everyone loves. By the way, we will provide this data deck to everyone after the session, so there’s no need to scramble to take photos of the slides. However, while the Margarita is still number one, it is beginning to slip from its historic volume highs. When you are on top, the only direction to go is down, and we are seeing alternative cocktail formats rise to claim that market share. Specifically, iced tea cocktails, mimosas, modern martinis, and various spritzes are growing. Consumers are leaning away from heavy, sugary profiles toward more inventive, dry, and complex flavor profiles. This heavily mirrors the rise of daytime and brunch drinking occasions; personally, I would much rather start my morning with a brunch mimosa or an espresso martini than a heavy, sugary drink.”
Ed Dobbles (2:55)
“When you look specifically at New York City, the trend line behaves a bit differently. Iced tea cocktails pop up with even higher menu velocity. We are also seeing a major rise in creative, upscale twists on classic tropical formats like Mai Tais, Breezes, and Piña Coladas. This matters because New York City operates as a trend-leading market; what hits menu placements here eventually diffuses out to markets like Des Moines. I’ve lived in Des Moines, so I’m allowed to make fun of it. As a producer, you want to study these early indicators so you can anticipate what is coming next. Looking at specific flavor terms on menus, traditional profiles like coffee and cherry are declining, while bright, complex fruit descriptions like blackberry, mango, and passion fruit are rising, alongside a strong demand for smoky flavor profiles.”
Ed Dobbles (3:52)
“For the independent spirit brands sitting in this room, our brand growth metrics reveal an incredibly encouraging trend. On-premise menus are systematically shifting away from legacy, corporate brands, and the majority of current menu growth is being captured by craft and small-batch producers. Independent bars and restaurants are far more open to exploring unique liquids and introducing new cocktail experiences to their guest base. Nationally, while Tito’s continues to scale up on menus, legacy giants like Malibu, Absolut, Bacardi, and Grey Goose are experiencing downward menu movement. New York City shows a few unique anomalies—Absolut picked up slightly, and Luxardo saw gains, which connects right back to that demand for premium modifiers to add complex fruit dimensions to craft cocktails. Overall, the trade is looking for spirits that offer distinct character and complex flavor profiles.”
Ed Dobbles (4:50)
“To wrap up, I want to address two specific questions that people frequently ask our team. First, are incoming tariffs going to completely screw up on-premise menus or disrupt current spirit programming? When we look objectively at active menus, we are seeing absolutely zero tariff impact right now. Historically, if operators were terrified of shifting margins, you would expect them to preemptively pull import-heavy categories like Scotch, Mezcal, and Japanese whisky off their lists. However, our data over the last six to twelve months shows that the exact menu mix for these categories has remained completely stable. Most independent restaurants are taking a pragmatic, ‘wait-and-see’ approach. So while tariffs could certainly impact your long-term financials, they are currently not altering how bartenders compose their menus.
Second, we ran a fascinating analysis looking at what award-winning bars do differently. We isolated the cocktail programs at international award-winning bars, James Beard honorees, and Michelin-starred restaurants. These top-tier venues over-index on complex modifiers to add artistic flare, but their core structures remain heavily anchored in classic, recognizable formats like the Old Fashioned, Martini, and Negroni. What starts at a James Beard or Michelin-starred backbar eventually trickles down to the rest of the commercial trade. Ultimately, you want to use this data to stay ahead of the curve. If the market is tough, arm yourself with data to make the best possible commercial decisions, stay on top of upcoming cocktail windows, and make sure you win those bi-annual menu placements. Thank you all very much.”
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