Stephanie Schneider Ghosn, Senior Manager, Marketing & Content at Park Street Companies, discussed the state of the spirits industry heading into 2025. Stephanie touched on the global beverage alcohol trends, spirits consumption by category in the U.S., and current investment patterns in the industry.
Charlotte Voisey, Global Head of Ambassador Advocacy at William Grant & Sons, gave a presentation on the evolution of cocktail trends in the last 25 years. Voisey emphasized the importance of bartenders in pushing forward the evolution of cocktails and the categories they have pushed to promote in the 21st century.
Lindsey Johnson, Founder and Creative Director of Lush Life, reveals how alcohol brands can connect with bartenders. Johnson touches on what is important to bartenders in 2025 and how education and connections can boost your brand.
Global Beverage Alcohol Trends Heading into 2025 Transcript
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (00:03)
Hi everyone, my name is Stephanie Schneider Ghosn, and I work for Park Street, primarily helping oversee Park Street University. I’m going to zoom out and give you a global overview of where things stand right now and where growth is expected to happen in the next four years predicted by IWSR. Then we’ll get a bit more specific on markets and trends before diving into M&A.
Kicking off with those growth-driving markets: these are the largest markets where the most money is. IWSR data shows us that the US, China, and India are the key value growth drivers, and they’re expected to add $30 billion USD in value by 2028, with India and the US each contributing $7.6 billion USD. Going forward, the major volume growth market in 2023 was India. In India, all major beverage alcohol categories other than rum and wine increased their volumes, with both Scotch and US whiskies recording 7% volume gains. India’s compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2028 is expected to exceed 4%, while the US will see a slower 0.8%. The US market is still much larger in volume and value, so this does make India’s growth quite remarkable. To give some context, the US and China have long-term been the highest-ranked destination markets to be in, and India is an interesting dynamic—it’s new to this category, and we’ll touch more on it in a bit.
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (01:47)
Developing markets such as Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam, Nigeria, Colombia, the Philippines, and Thailand are driving the growth in beverage alcohol value over the next five years. They’ve posted volume and value increases, and some of those—Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam, and Nigeria—are expected to add a combined $14.4 billion USD in value by 2028. These shifts are indicating a long-term trend from developed to developing alcohol markets.
Then there are these consistent mature markets. There’s been some underperformance in mature markets such as the UK, Japan, Germany, and Canada. These consistent mature markets are experiencing just marginal growth or even contraction, and IWSR identifies them as mature markets that are not expected to have explosive growth over the next four years. Some markets like Spain and Australia will have minor increases at about a 1% compound annual growth rate, while others like France and Poland will remain flat.
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (03:00)
Now let’s take a look at some trends reshaping our market. Economic challenges and inflation are contributing to the decline in alcohol consumption, while a trend towards moderation—especially among Millennials and Gen Z—is growing. Consumers are drinking less, driven by lifestyle changes focused on well-being that affect all age groups and regions—not just mature markets like the US and Western Europe, but also Asia and Latin America.
There’s a rising trend towards premiumization as well, with consumers opting for higher-end spirits like craft beers, single malt whiskies, and premium sparkling wines. Young consumers increasingly favor global brands over domestic options, which allows international companies to grow in a stagnant or declining market. Right now, the industry has hit a rough patch, which is why imports aren’t increasing at the moment, but long-term, consumers want global foreign brands.
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (04:03)
Then there’s the growth of low and no-alcohol beverages. Low and no-alcohol drinks, including spritzers, non-alcoholic gins, and beers, are rising in popularity, creating new business opportunities. The top 10 markets for these beverages include Germany, the US, France, Spain, the UK, and others, accounting for 70% of global sales in these categories. In these markets, consumption of no or low-alcohol drinks grew by 5% in 2023, reaching a market value of over $12 billion USD, with projections for 6% growth between 2023 and 2027. Zero-alcohol beer sales have surged, with EU production up 13.5% in 2023. Despite the strong growth, no and low-alcohol beverages still represent a small market share; IWSR forecasts that no-alcohol beverages will make up nearly 4% of the overall alcohol market by 2027. To get a feel for that size, craft spirits right now are at 4.6% volume in the US.
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (05:14)
Some future trends: the shift towards ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails and aesthetically pleasing, instagrammable drinks will likely continue, especially as younger consumers gravitate towards white spirits-based cocktails, liqueurs, and aperitifs. These ready-to-drink beverages and canned cocktails are popular among Gen Z, and so is social media. Social media—particularly Instagram—is influencing young consumers to prefer visually appealing drinks like colorful cocktails and spritzers, which has seen a significant rise in popularity, such as the craze over the Hugo Spritz this past summer. Agave is also growing in popularity; tequila is poised to add the most incremental value to the US spirits market by 2028, driven by premium and above expressions. Wine is on the decline, but rosé is trending up.
Looking at category trends in the US off-premise, prepared cocktails and tequila have shown significant growth, leading to overall growth in volumes. We’re seeing these strong growth numbers for prepared cocktails, which is definitely attributing to overall spirits volume growth. Whiskey and vodka started the year strong but have since struggled. Some similarities between US and EU data: cognac, brandy, gin, and rum are down across the board; whiskey and vodka have marginal growth; and tequila and prepared cocktails have significant growth.
Stephanie Schneider Ghosn (06:55)
Looking into our roundup of mergers and acquisitions in 2024 so far: despite a slowdown in overall investment, the beverage alcohol sector saw 34 significant M&A deals in the first half of this year. Both strategic and private buyers took advantage of evolving consumer trends and market shifts. Spirits dominated the M&A landscape with 22 deals, highlighting its ongoing popularity and innovation. Categories driving this activity include premium tequila, craft whiskey, and ready-to-drinks. Ready-to-drinks and canned cocktails saw seven deals, underlying the continued consumer demand for premium and convenient beverage options. Wine recorded seven deals and beer had five, reflecting a more modest level of M&A activity compared to spirits.
As the industry continues to adapt, future M&A activity is expected to concentrate on premium innovative products, direct-to-consumer capabilities (for convenience), and brands that appeal to younger consumers. Some of the most notable spirits deals so far: BuzzBallz was acquired by Sazerac, highlighting the popularity of ready-to-drinks right now; E. & J. Gallo acquired Cantera Negra Tequila, highlighting large companies positioning themselves within the premium craft spirits space; and Uncle Nearest made their vodka debut by acquiring Square One Organic Spirits, highlighting the trend of diversification and premiumization focused on organic ingredients and sustainability, which aligns with growing consumer demand for well-being. That about wraps it up. Thank you all very much!
The Evolution of Cocktail Trends in the Last 25 Years Transcript
Charlotte Voisey (00:03)
Hi everyone, it’s a pleasure to be here. Thank you, Park Street, for inviting me to be part of this session. I’m going to take a slightly different approach and talk about the trends of the last 25 years, because my intent is to show you how all of these numbers that my co-presenters have shared with you came to be. It is my belief that they came to be because of bartenders.
Let’s take a look at some examples, starting off with the Negroni. Everyone knows the Negroni—your grandmother drinks Negronis (she probably drinks them with a different spirit base other than gin), but that was not the case 25 years ago. When I first moved to the US in 2006, I met people like Dale DeGroff, Tony Abou-Ganim, and Francesco LaFranconi, and they were all drinking Negronis. I’d never seen that in person before—I’d only ever read about Negronis. I knew it was a classic drink, but I’d never actually met anyone who drank them and didn’t know that they were still around.
If you’re a bartender in the room and enjoy a Negroni, think back to the very first one you had: it was probably recommended to you by a bartender. They were passionate about this drink; they weren’t paid by Campari to drink them at that time (that would come later). But Campari was smart as a brand: they saw this and backed the passion of these influential bartenders who were getting behind their product in a classic cocktail that had credentials, integrity, credibility, and a place in history. When it came back, Campari was quick and clever to back those individuals. By 2013, Negroni Week was established. You can’t just establish Negroni Week out of the blue; that was built off the back of the labor of love and passion that these bartenders had.
Of course, here in Germany, we can’t talk about the growth of the Negroni without giving a shoutout to Mauro, who established the first rendition of his Negroni Cocktail Club here in Munich in 1998. It’s this slow kind of love and passion for a drink and a category that really helped the Negroni on its way. Then you have certain influential bars, like Dante in New York City, putting on Negroni sessions with a whole menu of Negronis. They showed other bartenders and bar owners around the world that the Negroni can be adapted to other spirit bases—which is genius, because now the whole industry can get involved. Now, your grandmother probably drinks Mezcal Negronis, which would have been unheard of even as a dream to someone like Dale 25 years ago.
Charlotte Voisey (03:07)
We’ll go now to everybody’s other favorite cocktail right now: the Espresso Martini. The Espresso Martini was created as the Vodka Espresso back in the early 1990s in London by Dick Bradsell. There is our first clue: created by a very well-respected bartender at a very important place and time in cocktail culture, so it already had that credibility.
The Espresso Martini came back in the 2010s, as we were entering the “vodka pays the bills” era. If you remember that, vodka was ousted when speakeasies and gin came in, and then people remembered that vodka pays the bills, so we needed to give it some love. Vodka brands were hiring brand ambassadors, and it was these brand ambassadors who needed a new drink to hang their hat on. They were the ones who started asking for Espresso Martinis in bars again.
By the 2010s, coffee culture had developed significantly. The coffee you drink now compared to 15 years ago is very different and much better. Different coffee products were available, so even a good cold brew concentrate or better coffee liqueurs became okay to use in an Espresso Martini. The whole opportunity of making an Espresso Martini became better from a quality standpoint. We also entered a post-speakeasy phase where bars were supposed to be fun again, and the Espresso Martini was a good reflection of that era that guests could quickly jump on board with.
Charlotte Voisey (05:18)
Next we have Agave Spirits. Every bartender loves tequila and Agave Spirits. They love them so much they probably don’t drink tequila anymore because it’s had its day—though according to the data, it’s just starting to emerge around the world outside of its biggest markets in the US and Mexico.
The 100% Agave movement started years ago by some very dear friends and passionate individuals: people like Jimmy Yeager and Steve Olson in the US, Thomas Estes here in Europe, and the wonderful Julio Bermejo. Julio and Thomas really epitomize how tequila has grown through a labor of love. Thomas Estes opened the first Cervecería/Café Pacifico in Amsterdam in 1976 (50 years ago!) and opened the London location in 1982. Julio has been doing amazing work in his family restaurant, Tommy’s in San Francisco, literally using the Margarita—America’s favorite cocktail—to invite people in and show them that 100% agave tequila tastes better. Opening people’s minds through a few passionate individuals really gave a foundation for Agave Spirits, especially in the US and London.
Charlotte Voisey (07:05)
It would be remiss of me not to talk about gin. Gin was huge in the 1800s, survived Prohibition, fell out of favor to vodka, and then came right back on top in this last cocktail renaissance. That wasn’t just the natural order of things; a few passionate bartenders made sure this happened, because bartenders have always loved gin. Gin has always been the spirit of the cocktail, with more classic cocktails and botanical flavor inspiration than any other category.
While gin was falling out of favor—I think it was in 1976 that vodka first overtook gin in the US—Javier de las Muelas opened Dry Martini in Barcelona in 1978. That was a bartender putting his back into gin and the Dry Martini at the altar of his bar, almost 50 years ahead of the current gin craze. In the late 1980s, Dale DeGroff famously brought cocktails back to the world at the Rainbow Room, where gin was put on a pedestal all over that menu.
In 1999, the Gin Palace in Melbourne, Australia opened as one of the first bars with only gin on the back bar—an incredible leap of faith at the time. In 2005, Audrey Saunders opened the Pegu Club, and in 2013, Julie Reiner opened the Clover Club—literally two bars in New York City named after gin cocktails. The message from these very influential bartenders was very clear: they loved gin, and gin was at the heart of cocktail culture. Their passion, menus, and craft passed over to guests.
Charlotte Voisey (10:00)
Then you had the local craft distilling movement, which acted as a segue for gin. Everyone wanted to start making whiskey again after Tuthilltown in New York got the first license to distill after Prohibition in New York State and kickstarted craft distilling. But with whiskey, you have to wait a couple of years, so in the meantime, you make gin because it’s a lot quicker. Now every town on this planet seems to be making a gin. All of these things helped the gin category evolve, but the comeback of gin was rooted in the decisions of a few passionate, influential bartenders who influenced their spheres.
What is this pattern, and how can we use it going forward? It’s about finding out what bartenders are passionate about. What has happened in the last five or six years will come to be really important for brands in the next 10 or 15 years. It’s a little harder these days because this new generation of bartenders is so creative, taking our craft to a whole new level rather than just reinstating the classics. But alongside all of this wonderful data, make sure you are listening to bartenders. Talk to them, and when you see their eyes light up, write that thing down—because what influential bartenders are passionate about will become a trend.
Charlotte Voisey (12:15)
This was a picture of me in 2005, right before I joined William Grant & Sons. I was a bartender, and when I joined that supplier, my mission was to bridge the gap between brands and bartenders. That’s something I took very seriously for 18 years until my last day a couple of weeks ago: keeping one foot in the bartender community and one foot in the brand world so I could be a two-way communicator between the two. If you have a brand, it’s really important to listen to bartenders and include them in your research. They’ve set the trends for the last 20 to 25 years, and I believe that they will continue to do so. Thank you!
How Alcohol Brands Can Connect with Bartenders Transcript
Lindsey Johnson (00:03)
Hi everyone, I am so excited to see all of you here because this is one of my favorite things in the whole wide world to talk about, and I’m going to talk to you a little bit about bartenders. Let’s just get the presentation going here—if you want to grab my presentation, you can use the QR code right here.
I’m going to give you a little background on where all these numbers come from: over the last year, we’ve surveyed over 2,000 different bartenders from across North America, and that’s where all the statistics that we’re going to share here come from. These surveys were conducted with a bunch of really amazing organizations like IWSR, CGA, and some independently by us at Lush Life. We asked a number of questions that were the same across all of the surveys, which is where a lot of this data comes from. But it’s also important to know that they were all geared towards specific projects and specific things, so there’s a little bit of adjustment that kind of goes along with that.
Lindsey Johnson (01:09)
So let’s move into what matters to bartenders in 2024. 94% of the 2,000 bartenders that we surveyed over the course of the last year said that education is their top priority, but when looking at social issues, 40% said social justice is their number one priority. I’m going to give you a little grain of salt, though—I’m sure Charlotte can back me up on this. Every time I put a survey out and say, “What kind of classes do you want?”, they’ll all say health and wellness. And then when it’s time to go to the health and wellness class, about four people show up for a class meant for 50! So keep a little grain of salt in mind here.
I think the takeaway for the 40% that said that’s their number one priority is that they want to understand your story, the reason why, the authentic message of your brand, and the value that your brand proposes. On the flip side, while they say they really care about social justice, fewer than 20% say that they’re interested in charity or charitable donations. So it really comes back to that main point: they’re looking for connection more than anything else. They want to connect to your brand and connect to you, so you’ve got to give them opportunities to do that.
Lindsey Johnson (02:21)
We also found that, by far and away, education is the top priority for everyone that we surveyed over the course of the year—that’s where that 94% number comes from. That’s what they want to see. We also found that very few are interested in large-scale, flashy events. While they’ll go if they’re invited, that’s not really the driving reason that people connect to and get excited about brands, and ultimately it’s not really what they want. We got a lot of feedback where folks were saying, “Oh, those big parties—while they’re fun, I feel like that money could have been better spent on X, Y, or Z.” Almost always, X, Y, and Z are educational platforms. That is the biggest takeaway.
What we found along the way is that trust remains the most important thing, and that trust can be developed in a lot of different ways. Trust can be developed through having a really fantastic brand professional who they can connect with and talk to, or built on your credentials—how it’s made, whether it is an ethically made product, and if you’ve shared that story with them. Trust is certainly not who is going to have the biggest celebrity at their party; that is increasingly less important for this audience. That also speaks to what Mita was talking about around premiumization: so many of the younger bartenders that we work with—the more they perceive something as fancy or premium, the less excited they are about it. They’re much more interested in and willing to spend money on brands that have these really incredible stories, great credentials, and who also invest in them.
We have a little internal graph that we keep of which brands are in the most growth and which brands spend the most money with us, and it is a one-to-one comparison. Campari spends the most money across trade advocacy platforms with us, and they are in the strongest growth in the States. I don’t think that’s a coincidence, and I certainly don’t think it’s just us—I think that’s indicative of who’s spending the most in that space.
Lindsey Johnson (04:36)
Key programs to engage bartenders in 2024: again, we’re really looking at connection as being the top priority above anything else. Around 30% of bartenders that we surveyed said they were interested in participating in competitions across the board. I will tell you, once a week a brand comes to me and says they want to do a competition, and once a week I try to talk them out of it! I’m successful about half the time. There are just certain things that work better and don’t work as well, and when you’re able to provide education and thoughtful connection for folks, that’s really where you’re going to see the most success.
The best mix of education and experience is when you can put together a homeplace trip where they can put their hands on the product, see it being made by real people, see where the water comes from, and see where the grains come from. That’s really where you’re going to get the deepest connection, and that has been the type of project that’s growing the fastest at Lush Life.
Lindsey Johnson (05:35)
Digital programs are something that, before the pandemic, anytime I tried to pitch a digital platform, I was laughed out of the room. Folks thought there was no way bartenders were going to show up for digital programming. During the pandemic, we just didn’t have a choice, so we did quite a bit of programming in the digital space. A little surprisingly, post-pandemic, we’re seeing all of our numbers go up. For regular live-stream videos that are education-based, we used to see about 3,000 viewers; now on average we’re seeing 12,000 viewers. There’s still a whole lot of momentum in that digital space, which can be attributed to a number of things. But at the core of it, digital programs can be listened to, downloaded, and watched anywhere—you don’t have to get a plane ticket or a hotel room, you can just hop on in and listen whenever you like on your commute.
That’s something where we’ve seen quite a jump over the last few years, and we’re not the only ones; Campari Academy is seeing similar, if not greater, growth in the same space. Digital platforms can absolutely work; there are just little tricks to make sure that we’re integrating important touchstones, like making sure we’re getting liquid to lips and educating around the brand.
For in-person platforms, I’m going to put a big old caveat on this: the 2,000 people who were surveyed were all people who went to our programs. But these are the programs in the US that they were most excited about participating in for 2025. I left this in here because I think it speaks to the overall point that community, connection, and education are prioritized overall over large-scale events and big parties. As a group, they’re much more interested in connecting with one another and connecting with your brand.
Lindsey Johnson (07:33)
To wrap this up: the big takeaway here is that connection is key. So few people are building and creating community, and if you can be a part of creating and driving a community, you’re going to make a big difference in that person’s life. They’re going to be much more likely to buy your brand and use your brand regularly. The more you can connect in a real way and provide real value and real education—whether that be in the form of a certificate from WSET (or EWA, one of our favorite partners) or something as simple as providing a little bit of brand education in a way that’s easy to consume and doesn’t cost them too much time or money—you’re really going to walk away with something special.
Folks are just looking for connection—we’re all just kind of looking for connection and community right now. So the more you can help foster that, the better. That brings me to the end—if you’d like to reach out, that’s my email. Thank you all!
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The Latest Mergers & Acquisitions in the Beverage Alcohol Space